We may have been lucky once again. The H1N1 / Swine flu epidemic which was first reported in Mexico in 2009 hasn't proved as deadly as early reports suggested it might be.
It's influenza. It's a pandemic.
It will kill a lot of people over the next three years.
But it doesn't look like it will be anywhere near as deadly as the flu pandemic of 1918.
It looks like it is another near miss, which means that we may have the chance to learn some lessons from the current outbreak...
Full article at http://www.riskythinking.com/articles/article39.php
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
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2 comments:
The media tends to blow most things out of proportion.
What we do know about H1N1 is that it is not deterred by the influenza vaccine, or by antivirals such as Tamiflu.
Really the only way to prevent from getting it is to either wear a flu mask, or to be very hygiene-conscious. Let's just hope for the best, beyond that.
Just to correct a misapprehension in FLu Mask's comment - antivirals such as Tamiflu are currently still effective against the novel H1N1 (swine) virus, although they are not effective against many current strains of seasonal flu. Given the rapid mutation of RNA viruses, this situation may change over time.
Anybody considering the use of a protective mask would do well to consider this advice on the use of flu masks from CDC. They are useful in certain circumstances against aerosol droplets (produced by coughs and sneezes), but the very small size of airborne flu virions limits their effectiveness.
This EPA presentation on the airborne transmission of viruses in indoor air gives some key information on the airborne propagation of viruses. Droplet nucleii of the size which penetrate most masks can travel 160 feet(!) or more. (Thanks to the Binomial Pandemic Blog for bringing this presentation to my attention.)
This is one reason why attempts to control the spread of flu are generally impractical and ineffective. (Another is that people start spreading flu before they develop any symptoms - so any precautions taken are too late to be effective.)
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